Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America |
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| Authors: | Hiro Lee Robert F Owen Dominique van der Mensbrugghe |
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| Institution: | 1. Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, 1-31 Machikaneyama-cho, Toyonaka, Osaka 560-0043, Japan;2. LEMNA Research Center, Institute of Economics and Management of Nantes (IEMN–IAE), Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, B.P. 52231, University of Nantes, 44322 Nantes Cedex 03, France;3. DECPG, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA |
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| Abstract: | Consequences of free-trade agreements (FTAs) among the ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 countries are explored using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of intra- and extra-regional effects on welfare, trade and output are offered. When both trade facilitation and endogenously determined productivity are included in the FTA scenarios, Singapore, other ASEAN countries and China would be able to realize relatively large welfare gains, while the welfare effects on the EU and North America are negligible. The trade and output effects on the latter two regions are also relatively small, with the notable exception of crops, other than rice, in North America. |
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