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The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network
Institution:1. Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University, 2-15-45, Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan;2. Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, 1-3-1, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan;3. Tokyo Center for Economic Research, 1-7-10-703, Iidabashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0072, Japan
Abstract:Global trade suffered a significant contraction in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its growth is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic trend. Did the relative importance of countries in the world trade network change as a result of the pandemic? The answer to this question is particularly important for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries because of their relative importance in world trade as well as their strong trade linkages with China, where the COVID-19 virus originated. This paper examines how the world trade network has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on ASEAN countries. Tracking the changes in centrality from January 2000 to March 2021, we find no evidence for most ASEAN and major trading countries that centrality changed significantly after the pandemic began. Our results suggest the resilience of the trade pattern for these countries.
Keywords:International trade  COVID-19 pandemic  Network  Centrality  Resilience
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