中国城市失业率--从出生组分析经济转型的影响

中国城市的失业率存在显著的差异,如果比较不同的教育群体,不同性别和不同出生组别的话。相对而言,在所有教育组内,年轻群组内存在比年老群组更高的失业率。年老群组在他们劳动生涯内,失业率长期维持在接近零的水平。然而对于年轻群组,情况大相径庭:失业率差异增大。对于年轻群组而言,失业率和教育程度呈现反向关系:大学以上教育依然维持最低失业率水平。性别的失业率差距随着教育程度的降低而扩大:最大差距出现在低等教育组。除此以外,出生组别之间的失业率差异随着年龄增加而扩大,而且这种差距也是在低等教育女性组最为明显,这也意味着低等教育女性在劳动力市场的需求处于极为不利的地位。我们对于这种群组之间的失业率差距提供了解释:国有企业高度集中导致了非常低的失业率,而经济转型过程中国有企业比重的下降伴随着劳动力市场自由化程度的提高, 带来了较高的失业率。

Unemployment Rate in Urban China: The Impact of Economic Transition Based on Cohort Patterns Analysis

The cohort patterns of unemployment rates are all quite clear for all groups, and there are differentials across education groups, genders, as well as cohorts. For all groups, later cohorts have higher unemployment rates than earlier cohorts in most of their labor ages. For old cohorts, the unemployment rates remain low around zero for most of their ages. However, it is not the case for recent cohorts: the unemployment rates begin to diverge across cohorts and groups. Although higher than those of old cohorts , the unemployment rates of recent cohorts in the above-college educated groups keep the lowest in all groups, no matter for males or females. However, the gender gap in the unemployment rate begins to diverge across cohorts for the high-school educated groups, and reaches an extremely high level in the low-educated groups. Besides, the inter-cohort differentials in the unemployment rate seem enlarging with ages for all groups, but the highest in the low-educated female group, which reflects the particularly disadvantageous status of this group in the labor market. Our explanations here try to analyze the reasons for the inter-cohort differentials in the unemployment rate. Our results suggest that the striking dominance of SOEs in the economy always lowers the unemployment rate, however, the declining dominance of SOEs happens with the liberalization of the labor market and brings about a higher unemployment rate.