Inflation, the credit market, and economic growth

This paper presents a model which predicts a negative, non-linearrelationship between the rate of inflation and rate of outputgrowth, as observed in many empirical studies. The model describesan economy in which credit market imperfections arise due toasymmetric information between lenders and borrowers. Withinthis environment, two types of lending regime are possible—arationing regime, where high and low risk borrowers are separatedby means of credit rationing, and a screening regime, whereseparation takes place through costly information acquisition.An increase in the inflation rate alters lenders' behaviourin such a way (by increasing the incidence of rationing or thelevel of costly screening, or by switching the lending regimefrom screening to rationing) that adverse growth effect of inflationis magnified. The analysis provides a basis for the empiricalfinding that growth effect of inflation may be strongest insome specific range of inflation.