中国财政政策降低不平等的效应分析:嵌入失业风险的视角

本文通过构建一个包含个体失业风险的Hank模型来分析财政政策降低不平等的影响路径与政策效果。研究发现:(1)由于储蓄规则和流动性约束作用,不平等的加剧会增加总储蓄率,不利于向以消费为主的经济结构转型;(2)降低收入所得税对减轻不平等的效果取决于其累进程度,降低比例税可降低不平等,增加一般性转移支付对改善不平等效果不显著,但增加失业和贫困补贴可显著降低不平等,并提高具有高边际消费倾向的贫困家庭的消费,可实现公平与效率的兼顾;(3)提高技能有助于抵御失业风险带来的低收入风险。本文模型不仅与已有实证结果拟合程度较好,同时也为新时代全面脱贫、降低不平等和构建新发展格局提供新思路。

Analysis of the Effect of China’s Fiscal Policy on Reducing Inequality from the Perspective of Unemployment Risk

This paper analyzes the influence path and policy effect of fiscal policy to reduce inequality by constructing a Hank model that includes individual unemployment risk.The study shows that:(1)Due to the effect of savings rules and liquidity constraints,rising inequality will increase the total savings rate,which is not conducive to the transition to a consumption-based economic structure;(2)The effect of reducing income taxes on reducing inequality depends on degree of progression.Reducing proportional taxes can reduce inequality,and increasing general transfer payments has no significant effect on improving inequality,but increasing unemployment and poverty subsidies can significantly reduce inequality and increase the consumption of poor families with high marginal propensity to consume.It can achieve both fairness and efficiency;(3)Improving skills can help resist the low-income risk caused by unemployment.The model in this paper not only fits well with the existing empirical results,but also provides new ideas for alleviating poverty in the new era,reducing inequality,and building a new development pattern.