投资于亚洲国家的主权债务更安全吗?

本文利用全球21个主要经济体的样本数据,通过跨期主权债务模型和实证模型的分析,探讨这些国家的主权债务风险情况,并给出各国所处的不同风险层级。研究结果表明世界上主要经济体的主权债务状况呈现较为明显的分化状态,且在区域内表现出明显的不对称性。亚洲和欧洲等地区都有国家分处在不同的安全级别,任何一个洲在整体上都不在主权债务安全水平上有特别的优势。本文的实证结果还同时甄别出现阶段主权债务风险较低的国家,为我国巨额外汇储备的投资组合提供了选择依据。

Is the Investment on the Sovereign debt of the countries in Asia much safer?

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the 21 major economies’ sovereign debt risk based on the inter-temporal sovereign debt model and the empirical study.The result reflects that the sovereign debt risk of different countries diversified deeply,which appears asymmetric among the countries in the same region.The sovereign debt of some countries in Asia also has great risk.We screen out the counties with relative low sovereign debt risk,which can be a reference for the modification of China’s foreign reserve’s portfolio.