人口老龄化与劳动生产率的量化关系研究

在理论分析上,将劳动生产率和人口老龄化引入索洛经济增长模型,利用数理推导得出老龄化与劳动生产率存在非线性关系。实证层面上,基于2000-2017年省级面板数据,通过面板固定效应回归以及面板门槛回归分析了老龄化对劳动生产率的影响。研究结果表明:一、老龄化与劳动生产率存在"U"型曲线关系,二者现阶段处于"U"型曲线的左侧,即现阶段老龄化降低了劳动生产率;二、当企业转型升级或生产技术增长到一定阶段,老龄化与劳动生产率就呈同方向变化;三、虽处于"U"型曲线的左侧,但老龄化对劳动生产率的反向效应并不平滑,存在门槛效应。

Research on the Quantitative Relationship between Population Aging and Labor Productivity

Theoretically,this paper introduces labor productivity and population aging into the Solow economic growth model.The nonlinear relationship between aging and labor productivity is obtained by mathematical derivation.Empirically,based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017,the paper analyzes the impact of aging on labor productivity through panel fixed effect regression and panel threshold regression.The analysis comes up several findings.First,there is a U curve relationship between aging and labor productivity,and currently,they are on the left side of the U curve.Second,when production technology is upgraded to a certain stage,aging and labor productivity will change in the same direction.Third,although they are on the left side of the U curve,the negative impact of aging on labor productivity is not smooth,and there is a threshold effect.