| 消费、投资、出口与物流供给的关系——基于VECM的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李建军, 舒辉,.消费、投资、出口与物流供给的关系——基于VECM的实证研究[J].华东经济管理,2011,25(10):30-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李建军 舒辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江西财经大学,信息管理学院,江西,南昌,330013;江西师范大学,数学与信息科学学院,江西,南昌,330022
2. 江西财经大学,信息管理学院,江西,南昌,330013 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(70562002);; 江西省社会科学“十一五”规划项目(08YJ16) |
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| 摘 要： | 消费、投资和出口通过扩大需求促进经济增长,而物流则通过物流供给使消费、投资、出口需求得到满足,进而间接促进经济增长。文章协整分析结果表明,消费、投资、出口和物流供给之间存在长期均衡关系,1%的消费和出口需求得到满足将分别减轻1.08%和0.35%的物流供给压力,投资增加1%将增加1.70%的物流供给能力。Granger因果关系检验结果表明,消费、出口在短期和长期均是物流供给的原因,投资短期内不是物流供给的原因,但长期内是物流供给的原因;物流供给短期内不是消费的原因,但长期内,物流供给和投资、出口一起成为消费的原因,投资和出口在短期和长期均不受系统内其它变量的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 三驾马车 物流供给 向量误差修正模型 格兰杰因果检验 |
The Relationship of Consumption,Investment,Export and Logistics Supply:Empirical Study Based on VECM |
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| LI Jian-jun; ; SHU Hui.The Relationship of Consumption,Investment,Export and Logistics Supply:Empirical Study Based on VECM[J].East China Economic Management,2011,25(10):30-34. |
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| Authors: | LI Jian-jun; ; SHU Hui |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Information Technology; Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics; Nanchang 330013; China; 2.College of Mathematics of Information Science; Jiangxi Normal University; Nanchang 330022; China |
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| Abstract: | Consumption,investment and export promotes economic growth by expanding demands,and logistics meets the needs of consumption,investment and export by logistics supply,thus indirectly promotes the economic growth.The result of co-integration analysis shows that there exits a long-term equilibrium relationship between consumption,investment,export and logistics supply.1% of the consumption and export needs met will alleviate the pressure of the logistics supply by 1.08% and 0.35% respectively,1% increased inv... |
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| Keywords: | three components of GDP logistics supply vector error correction model granger causality test |
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