投资率与地方政府增值税税源——基于静态和动态面板数据模型的实证分析

文章从全国和省级两个层次,对我国投资率与地方政府增值税税源状况进行描述,并根据国民收入恒等式从理论上证明,提高投资率将会增加地方政府的增值税税源。在此基础上,使用静态和动态面板数据模型,就投资率对地方政府增值税税源的影响进行实证分析。研究结果表明:我国的投资率与地方政府增值税税源成倒U型曲线关系;地方政府增值税税源在时间上具有连续性。基于增值税税源因素的考虑,地方政府有推高投资率的动机,但过高的投资率将侵蚀地方政府增值税税源。我国地方政府应适当控制本辖区的投资率水平,并保持经济调控政策的稳定性。

Investment Rates and Value-added Tax Sources of Local Governments-An Empirical Analysis Based on Static and Dynamic Panel Data Model

The paper describes the status of China’s investment rates and value-added tax sources of local governments from both national and provincial levels. According to the national income identity,it proves theoretically that the increase of invest-ment rate can also expand value-added tax sources of local governments. Based on this,this paper uses static and dynamic pan-el data model to carry out an empirical analysis of the impact of investment rate on value-added tax sources of local govern-ments. The research results show that,the investment rate and local government’s value-added tax sources are in the inverted U curve relation in China’and the value-added tax sources of local governments have continuity in time. Based on the consider-ation of value-added tax sources, local governments have an incentive to push up the investment rates, but high investment rate will erode value-added tax sources of local governments. Therefore,China’s local governments should control investment rates appropriately,and maintain the stability of economic regulation and control policy.