节水农业综合效益价值差异评估——基于甘肃省数据研究

文章基于改进的AHP分析法,通过Delphi法确定指标权重并进行加权修正,均值化方法对指标数据进行无量纲化处理,利用甘肃省2005-2012年节水农业投入产出指标数据,对甘肃省节水农业建设产生的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益等的价值以及各效益间差异收敛性进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:2005-2012年甘肃省节水农业综合效益价值呈逐年较快线性增长趋势;经济效益价值、生态效益价值和社会效益价值间收敛性变化差异明显,其中,经济效益价值与社会效益价值间呈现较强的"U型"效应趋势,具有强离散性,经济效益价值与生态效益价值间呈现显著的"W型"效应趋势,中长期内收敛性弱化,而生态效益价值与社会效益价值效应趋势呈显著的"倒U型",中长期内收敛性显著。

An Evaluation on the Value Discrepancies of Water-saving Agriculture Comprehensive Benefits --Based on the Data of Gansu Province

The paper conducts an empirical analysis of the values and convergence among differences on water-saving agriculture bringing about economic., benefits, ecological benefits and social benefits from the year of 2005 to 2012 in Gansu Prov- ince, based on the input and output data of water-saving agriculture in the province during the same period, applying the improved AHP analysis method, through the Delphi method to determine index weight and weighted correction as well as the dimensionless processing of mean value method to index data. The results show that the comprehensive benefit value trend of wa- ter-saving agriculture appears rapid linear growth annually over the same period; the convergence among value dill）fences in economic benefit value, ecological benefit value and social benefit value is obvious. Among them, the difference between eco- nomic benefit value and social benefit value presents a strong ＂U type＂ effect trend and has a strong discreteness, the differenee between economic benefit value and ecologic benefit value shows a remarkable ＂W type＂ effect trend and convergence is weakening in the medium and long term, while the difference between ecological benefit value and social benefit value demonstrates a prominent ＂inverted U type＂ and convergence is significant in the medium and long term.