人口流动助推地区经济增长的机制研究--基于长三角城市群的面板数据

文章基于2005-2017年长三角城市群数据,采用面板模型实证检验人口流动对地区经济发展的影响,并进一步分析人口流动促进长三角经济增长的传导路径。结果显示:我国长三角地区人口流动对经济增长具有显著正向影响;人口流动会改变地区劳动力规模和结构,重塑人口分配格局,促进人力资本积累,并通过优化产业结构、促进科技创新及增加居民消费三条路径推动长三角城市群经济增长;人口流动对长三角经济增长的促进作用在户籍管制宽松、人口密度较低、受教育程度较低及规模较大的城市更加明显。因此,结合我国实际情况,应深化户籍制度改革,引导人口合理流动、加大人力资本投资、优化资源配置、调整产业结构,促进我国长三角城市群经济可持续发展。

Research on the Mechanism of Population Mobility Promoting Regional Economic Growth:Based on Panel Data of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Based on the data of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in 2005-2017,this paper uses panel model to empirically test the impact of population mobility on regional economic development,and further analyzes the transmission path of population mobility to promote economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that population mobility in the Yangtze River Delta region has a significant positive impact on economic growth;population mobility will change the size and structure of regional labor force,reshape the pattern of population distribution,promote the accumulation of human capital,and promote the economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration by optimizing the industrial structure,promoting technological innovation and increasing the consumption of residents;the promotion of population flow to the economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta is more obvious in areas with loose household registration regulations,low population density,low education,and larger cities.Therefore,combined with China’s actual situation,the reform of the household registration system should be deepened to guide the rational flow of population,so as to increase investment in human capital,optimize resource allocation,adjust the industrial structure,and eventually promote the sustainable economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.