广州工业竞争力系统动态预测及政策模拟研究

文章应用系统动力学（SD）理论及仿真方法，通过系统分析确定了工业产业的生产、技术创新和经济环境三个子系统，建立广州工业竞争力系统动力学模型，模拟广州市2000—2020工业竞争力的动态变化。结果发现：“政府科技投入占财政支出比例”、“投资比例”和“工业企业R＆D支出比例”这三个变量同时提高1％，达到输出结果最优。最后，从加强科技创新投入、扩大引资规模、改善工业发展环境等方面提出政策建议。

Study on Dynamic Forecast and Policy Simulation of Industrial Competitiveness in Guangzhou

The purpose of this paper is to explore a combination of quality and quantity to reflect operating mechanisms on regional industries competitiveness system,observing their behavior,finding the feedback loop which play a major role and the leverage of the policy.On the basis of the correspondence analysis on the existing regional industrial competitiveness system and the real date,a roughly discussion on the relationship among the components is made in our paper,then the solution with the application of this...