中国对外贸易开放度与经济增长关联性研究——基于VAR模型的动态实证分析

本文通过引入货物贸易开放度、服务贸易开放度、外商直接投资开放度三个开放度指标,而后采用两变量VAR模型分析1984-2003年20年间我国各对外贸易开放度指标与经济增长之间存在的相关性,研究结果表明:我国对外经济贸易开放度与经济增长之间存在着较强的正向交互响应作用,而且二者长期响应作用的程度更显著、更稳定。

Openness and Economic Growth——An Research of Dynamic Econometric Based on VAR Model

The paper constructs an integrated index system about economy openness by introducing openness of goods trade, openness of service trade and openness of direct investment. Then,we used VAR model of two variables to analyze the relationship between openness and economic growth from 1984 to 2003,and applies impulse response and variance decomposition to portray the dynamic correlations between them. The result shows that there exists a strong positive response between openness and economic growth. The long-term effect is more prominent and stable. Therefore,we should focus on continuity and stability on trade policy,and avoid short-time extensive rectification.