货币政策如何应对房地产泡沫——中日比较分析

本文通过分析日本货币政策应对房地产泡沫的教训、比较中日两国针对房地产泡沫决策的宏观经济指标以及货币政策不作为的宏观经济影响,得出以下结论:中日两国房地产泡沫的形成具有相似背景,当前中国的宏观经济指标也呈现出与日本资产泡沫形成期类似的特征。考虑到两国银行体系在房地产融资中的相似地位以及同样较高的房地产家庭财富占比,中国在货币政策的应对方面应该紧缩货币以挤压泡沫。

Should Monetary Policy Respond to Real Estate Price Bubbles? A Comparison between China and Japan's Experience

In this paper we analyze Japan's experience and lessons of how should monetary policy respond to real estate price bubbles. Then we make a comparison between China and Japan's economic indices during bubble period and discuss the negative effects of central bank's disrespondence to bubbles. We draw a conclusion that a) real estate price bubbles of the two countries formed under similar conditions,b) China's economic indices show analogous characters as that of Japan's in its bubble emerging and developing period,c) banking system's high status in real estate financing and high ratio of real estate assets in family wealth are in common in the two countries,d) China' central bank should conduct monetary tightening policy to squeeze the bubble.