警惕潜在的委内瑞拉风险

委内瑞拉是严重依赖石油出口且其潜力巨大的国家。随着查韦斯执政后的政局动荡、"新国有化"政策实施、油价起伏,石油产量、出口量整体呈降势,原拟以石油收入全面发展油气工业,调整不均衡的经济结构、大幅度提高人民生活水平的愿望也难以实现。其关键是国内外,特别是国营石油公司对石油的投资明显不足。中国对委内瑞拉投资巨大,以贷款换石油的模式已产生广泛影响。如果委政局有重大变化,油价下跌将可能使经济—社会出现动荡。中国应充分发挥合资公司各方和本地员工积极性,更全面进入油气工业上中下游各环节,助其发展,对各类政治势力进行全方位的友好交往等力争规避风险。

Status Quo of Venezuela’s Petroleum Industry and Possible Risks on China

Venezuela is a heavily oil export-dependent country and also enjoys huge export potential.Because of political turbulences following Chavez’s taking office,as well as the implementation of new nationalization policies and fluctuations of international oil prices,Venezuela’s oil production and export volumes have both been on the decline.Its original plans to use oil revenues to promote a full development of its oil and gas industry,adjust its imbalanced economic structure and substantially improve people’s living conditions have also become difficult to realize.The key to these problems is the lack of enough investment in the country’s oil industry by foreign and domestic oil companies,especially its own state-owned oil companies.China’s huge investment in Venezuela’s oil sector over the past years and the "loans-oil swapping" model have produced extensive influences on Venezuela’s development and bilateral ties.In the case of some major changes emerging in Venezuela’s political situations,oil prices are likely to decline and fuel its economic and social turbulence.China should fully activate the enthusiasm for work of relevant parties in its Venezuela-based joint ventures and local employees,involve itself more broadly in relevant upstream,middle-stream and downstream industries,help boost their development and carry out all-dimensional friendly exchanges with various political factions in a bid to evade potential risks.