货币锚的选择与退出:对最优货币规则的再考察

百年来,无论是传统的固定与浮动之争,还是现代的中间与两极之争都无法解决什么才是最好的汇率制度这一难题。基于此,本文从什么才是最优的货币规则这一新的视角对基本的货币问题进行探讨,并得到一系列结论:(1)货币不可无锚,而锚的选择取决于网络外部性;(2)不同的下锚规则本质上决定了货币政策工具和政策目标的界定,原则上,一个国家、货币区甚至全球货币体系可选择黄金、单一或一篮子货币、一篮子商品、货币供给量作为固定的货币锚;(3)相对较高的外汇储备和适度的资本管制为一国货币锚有序退出提供了条件。

Exit from Currency Anchor: A Further Study on Optimal Monetary Rule

In the past decades,neither the traditional argument over fixed and floating exchange rate regimes nor the modern division over bipolar and intermediate regimes can answer the question of what is the best exchange rate regime? Based on those arguments,this article starts from the new perspective of what is the optimal currency rule and comes to a set of conclusions: 1) No currency can survive without an anchor,and the choice of the anchor depends on network externalities;2) Different anchor rules essentiall...