近代天津对外贸易与工业经济增长的实证研究

本文根据协整理论,利用天津近代1894～1948年数据,实证分析了对外贸易与工业经济增长之间的关系。协整检验结果显示,长期而言,工业经济增长与对外贸易之间构成了稳定的均衡关系。协整分析方程显示,在长期内,对外贸易增长可以显著地促进工业经济增长。Granger因果关系检验结果显示,对外贸易与工业经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,进一步说明了对外贸易可以带动工业经济增长,这是天津近代工业经济高速增长的重要因素。

Demonstrative research of Tianjin foreign trade and industry economy growth

The Cointegration theory is applied to analyze the relationship between the Tianjin′ s foreign trade and the industry economy by the statistical data from 1894 to 1948. The result shows that, for a long time, there is a stable balanced relationship between the industry economy growth and foreign trade. The cointegratim equation indicates that in longrun the foreign trade can remarkably promote the economic growth;The Granger causal relation examination result shows that,the and the economic growth have thebidirectional causal relation,and this further explains that foreign trade. may lead to economic growth and it is an importantattribute to Tianjin’ s fast economic growth.