四川省工业经济增长与环境污染关系研究

运用1988～2005年的三废污染指标,从时序维度考察四川省工业经济增长与环境污染的长期双向动态关联效应及作用机制。一方面,基于可消除变量内生性偏差的协整分析得到工业经济增长对工业三废存在正协整作用,结合实情得出该省三废排放受资源配置合理性、企业规模、工业和产业结构效应等外在压力的影响。另一方面,考虑到环境污染的经济增长效应存在滞后作用的不确定性,采用广义脉冲响应函数研究工业三废对工业经济增长的反向作用,结果表明工业GDP对工业废水、废气的冲击响应为正。同样结合实情分析出抑制污染排放的措施如环境管制、工业结构调整、转移治理重污染环节等会造成工业经济增长的负面影响,且具有一定的滞后作用。但工业固废的反向冲击结论将启发后续研究者从企业信誉度、清洁环境收益、取消环境破坏经济活动扭曲补贴以及工业园区的环境效应等因素进行更深入研究。

Sichuan province industry economy growth and environment pollution relation research

By using Sichuan's time series data during 1988-2005,This paper aims at investgating the relationships and mutual functions between the industrial economical development and the environmental runoffs.On one side,it shows there is a positive relationship of Johansen cointegration on industrial economical development on environmental runoffs.Combining with the real situation of Sichuan,it concludes the rationality of the resources' allocation、scales of enterprises、industrial and industies' structure all have effects on runoffs.On the other side,Considering the runoffs may led to affecting industrial economical development with some delay on the other,GIRF is used to research on the anti-effect which runoffs may have on industrial economical development.The result shows the wasted water and gas have positive impacts.Combining similarly with the situation,It concludes the environmental regulations、adjustment of industrial structure、transformation of disposing of serious pollution links have led to reducing the development of industry with some delay.But,the result from impact of industrial solid on the industrial economical development can enlighten the researchers to make deeper researches on the impacts of credits of enterprises、gains of clean environment、taking off wrong subsidies given to the activities which make negative impact on environment and environmental impacts of industrial parksas well.