回归以来粤港金融发展差异及其成因实证研究

1997年香港回归以前,粤港两地的金融发展表现出明显的差异性。然而,回归以后,在"一国两制"方针的背景下,随着CEPA的实施和粤港两地经济一体化的推进,粤港两地金融发展迅速,竞合关系也发生了微妙的变化,这推动了大珠三角地区金融业的重新分工与整合。这一趋势将会扩大还是缩小两地金融差异,成为经济社会各界关注的一个重要问题。本文在利用金融相关率等统计指标比较分析两地金融发展差异的基础上,通过基于经济收敛理论的计量实证分析两地金融发展的动态差异性,得出粤港两地金融发展差距缩小,呈现σ收敛特征,但幅度不大,整体未呈现长期的随机收敛特征,并对该特征的成因作出深入分析,最后提出了缩小两地金融差异的具体政策建议。

Demonstrative research of Guangdong and HK financial dev elopm ent difference and its forming reason after returning to China

Before the reunification in 1997,the financial development of Hong Kong and Guangdong showed significant differences.While after that,in the background of "one country,two systems",with the implementation of CEPA? and promotion of economic integration between Guangdong and Hong Kong,financial development in the two places is booming and subtle changes of their competitive and cooperative relationship have taken place,which will promote the Greater Pearl River Delta Region's new division of labor and financial sector integration.Economic community deeply concerns this trend will expand or shrink the financial differences between the two places.In this paper,by using the statistical indicators like Financial Interrelation Ratio,we analyze comparatively the differences in the two places in financial development.After that,an empirical study is carried on to prove their dynamic differences in financial development on the basis of the theory-based measure of economic convergence.It shows that the gap of the two places is narrowing,performing σ convergence characteristics within a small range,but in the long-term it is not present stochastic convergence characteristics.Furthermore,we finely analyze the causes of such characteristics and finally propose specific policy advices to narrow the gap between Guangdong and Hong Kong.