福建省外贸行业供给侧改革效应分析

供给侧改革正式提出以来,全国各地掀起了供给侧改革的热潮,它成为经济发展过程中的焦点。经过几年的改革发展,供给侧改革在运行中颇有成效,福建省作为改革开放的前沿省份,也取得了明显的改革效果。而外贸行业作为福建省的主要行业之一,增速相较于福建省的GDP来说是比较平缓的。为了了解供给侧改革为福建省外贸行业的发展带来怎样的效应,采用巴拉萨模型和逐步回归法进行实证分析,发现:供给侧改革引起的是贸易转移效应;在进出口贸易结构改革中,一般贸易、进料加工贸易、保税监管场所进出境货物、海关特殊监管区域物流货物和设备、来料加工装配贸易的改革效应较为突出;而在外资的投资结构方面,服务业与工业是外商直接投资结构性改革的重要影响因素。

Analysis on the Effect of Supply-Side Reform of Foreign Trade Industry in Fujian Province

Since the formal proposal of supply side reform, there has been an upsurge of supply-side reform all over the country, which has become the focus in the process of economic development. After several years of reform and development, the supply-side reform is quite effective in economy operation. Fujian Province,as the frontier province of reform and open, has also achieved obvious reform results. As one of the main industries in Fujian Province, the growth rate of foreign trade industry is relatively slow compared with the GDP of Fujian Province. In order to understand the effect of supply side reform on the development of foreign trade industry in Fujian Province, this paper uses the Balassa model and stepwise regression method to conduct empirical analysis. The empirical results show that: the supply-side reform causes the effect of trade transfer;in the reform of the trade structure, there are common trade, processing trade with imported materials, import and export goods in bonded supervision places, logistics goods and equipment in special customs supervision area, and processing and assembly trade with supplied materials, which show the prominent effect of supply-side reform;in the reform of foreign investment structure, service and industry are the important factors which influence the FDI structural.