兼容性制度竞争:双层对冲与地区制度的嵌套设计北大核心

地区制度的兴起增加了全球治理机制的复杂性。竞争性多边主义理论强调制度竞争会导致国际机制的碎片化和规则冲突。制度聚合理论则认为制度背景会强化规则的一致性,甚至形成制度服从。这种冲突—聚合的二分法不足以分析地区制度与多边制度之间关系的复杂现实。作者提出一个双层对冲的分析框架,以解释地区制度与核心多边制度间的联系机制;一方面,地区成员要通过建立地区制度寻求外部选项,实现对现有多边制度的制衡。另一方面,地区成员又离不开现有多边制度,需要借用现有的多边制度资源来解决地区制度建设中的机会主义问题。为了实现双层对冲,地区成员国会根据地区制度的系统冲击效应和投资报偿结构,设计不同的制度嵌套。作者比较了金融救助领域的欧洲稳定机制、清迈倡议多边化以及拉美储备基金等地区金融安排,其结果符合预期。双层对冲框架下的兼容性制度竞争有利于推动国际制度的渐进变迁,限制了大国在国际秩序转型中的冲突烈度,为世界政治的和平权力转移提供了可能。

Compatible Institutional Competitions:Two-Level Hedging and Nested Designs of Regional Institutions

The rise of regional institutions has increased the complexity of global governance.The theory of competitive multilateralism emphasizes that institutional competition will lead to the fragmentation of international regime and conflicts of international rules.The theory of institutional convergence believes that the institutional background will strengthen the consistency of rules and even form institutional deference.However,the conflict-convergence dichotomy seems insufficient in explaining the complex relationship between regional and multilateral institutions.This paper proposes a two-level hedging framework to analyze the interaction between regional institutions and core multilateral institutions.On the one hand,regional members tend to seek alternative options by establishing regional institutions to counterbalance existing multilateral institutions.On the other hand,regional members are inseparable from the existing multilateral system which offers resources to solve the problem of opportunism during the construction of regional institutions.In order to achieve two-level hedging,regional members will design various institutional nesting based on the systemic effects of regional institutions and the payoff structure of investment.By comparing regional financial arrangements of the European Stability Mechanism,the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization,and the Latin American Reserve Fund,the results are as expected.Compatible institutional competition under two-level hedging framework is conducive to promoting the incremental reform of the international institution,limiting the intensity of conflicts among major powers in the transformation of international order,and providing the possibility for the peaceful transfer of power in world politics.