进口贸易视域下国际粮价对国内粮价的传导路径--来自玉米和大豆的证据

基于玉米和大豆等粮食国际、国内价格历史数据,运用协整及误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等方法,揭示国际粮价对国内粮价的传导作用及影响路径。理论分析表明,国际粮价通过进口直接路径、进口产品成本路径和进口替代路径等三个子路径传导至国内粮价。实证检验发现,国际大豆价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导均比较充分,即国际大豆价格会影响大豆进口价格,进而影响国内大豆价格,最终影响国内豆油价格;国际玉米价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导则不充分,国际玉米价格会影响玉米进口价格,但是对国内玉米价格和国内玉米淀粉价格影响程度较低;而在进口替代路径中,玉米和大豆的国际价格传导均不充分。我国应继续推进以提质增效为目标的农业供给侧结构性改革,加大粮食生产科技投入力度,调动农民种粮积极性,集中力量提高粮食供给质量和效率;坚持粮食进口仅为调剂国内供求余缺的方针,把握粮食安全的主动权;建立健全粮食市场的价格调控体系及风险防控体系,规避国际粮食市场剧烈波动对国内粮食市场的影响。

Transmission Channel of International Price to Domestic Price in Food Market from the Perspective of Import Trade--the Evidence of Corn and Soybean Market

Based on the historical data of corn and soybean prices at home and abroad,the authors adopt co-integration and error correction model,impulse response function to study the transmission channel of international price to domestic price in food market with the perspective of import trade. The transmission channels of international price to domestic price include direct import channel,imported product cost channel and import substitution channel in theory. The empirical test shows that the direct import channel and imported product cost channel in soybean market are relatively efficient,namely international soybean price has impact on the imported soybean price,which will in turn have impact on domestic soybean price,and it will finally have impact on domestic soybean oil price;however,the above two channels in corn market are inefficient,namely the international corn price has a significant effect on the import price of corn in China,while the effects of the import price on the domestic price of corn and corn starch in China are weak. The import substitution channel in both corn and soybean market are inefficient. Thus,China should,first,carry out the supply side structural reform in the agriculture industry that taking improving quality and efficiency as the purpose,increase science and technology investment in food production,arousing farmers’ enthusiasm of food planting,and focus on the improvement of food supply quality and efficiency;second,China should adhere to the principle that the imported food can only be used as the supplement to the shortage or surplus of domestic food supply and demand,and remain firm in our commitment to pursuing food safety;and third,China should establish the price control system and risk prevention system for the food market,and prevent the impact of price fluctuation in international food market on domestic food market.