外部因素对中国商品流通影响的长期性分析——以需求为例

改革开放以来,外部因素对我国国内需求以及商品流通都产生了深远影响,特别以东南亚金融危机以及本轮全球金融危机为最。外部因素对国内需求及商品流通的作用具有典型的阶段性特点,并随着开放经济的进一步发展呈现长期性。外部因素可经由数量、价格、全球化与国内市场互动以及渠道变革四个途径影响我国国内需求,进而影响商品流通的整个过程。鉴于外部因素作用于商品流通的长期性特点,在流通领域的理论和政策研究与实践中,需借助动态分析方法,从内生化层次讨论外部因素对我国商品流通的影响,按照外部因素内生化的基本观点,改进和丰富有关流通领域的贸易政策和产业政策。

The Long-Term Impact of External Factors on Chinese Commodity Circulation: From the Perspective of Demand

Since reform and opening up,there exists significant influence from external factors to Chinese internal demand and commodity circulation,particularly to the Southeast Asia financial crisis.The impact of external factors on the internal demand and commodity circulation is of differentiated character in different stages,and the influence becomes to be of protracted nature with the further development of opening economy.Moreover,the external factors will impose impacts on the internal demand and then on the commodity circulation with the help of such four ways as quantity,price,the interaction between globalization and internal market,and the transformation of channel.According to impact with protracted nature,dynamic analytic approaches and heterogeneous thoughts on policy making need to be utilized in the theoretical study and policy practice of circulation areas.