人民币跨境流动自由度的测算——基于资本项目名义开放指数的借鉴

长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。

Estimating the Freedom of RMB Cross-border Flow——based on the Experience of De Jure Measures of Capital Account Openness

People always pay close attention totheresult of currency internationalization,use relevant indexes such as the share of global trade invoicing and settlement,the share of global exchange rate transaction,the share of global international bond,the share of global foreign exchange reserve to measure the extend of currency’s acceptance by the world,but ignore the process of the currency cross-border flow deregulation,that is the liberalization process of one currency to flow in-out freely permitted by the authorities.Currency internationalization is a process and also is a result,it contains the meaning of process and result;currency internationalization process not only influences internationalization result itself,it also influences domestic economic and financial stabilization.Permitting local currency flow in-out freely too early or rapidly will lead to economic and financial risk.So,internationalization process deserves more attention than result.Based on the study of China’s monetary policy before the second season of 2019,the authors evaluate RMB cross-border flow freedom of current account,security investment account,and capital account from 2008 to 2019,formulate the index of RMB cross-border flow freedom,and inspect RMB cross-border flow freedom from 2008 to 2019.It is found that the process of RMB internationalization has been accelerated,RMB cross-border flow has been deregulated,and the degree of RMB inflow freedom is much higher than RMB outflow freedom.In terms of RMB internationalization,we should,first,obey the policy of“current account first,and then the capital account”,“inflow first,and then the outflow”,“institution first,and then the individual”,“large amount first,and then the small amount”,and“low-risk project first,and then the high-risk project”,improve the stability of RMB cross-border flow,and reduce the speculative risk brought by disorderly flow;second,we should vigorously control RMBcross-border flow of security investment account,other kinds of investment account,and derivatives account,and make adjustment of that according to the degree of interest rate liberalization,the advance of financial market,and the capability for prudential regulation;third,we should increase the proportion of RMB settlement in current account,develop RMB offshore market,and increase the use frequency of RMB not among residents;and fourth,we should fully evaluate RMB cross-border flow and exchanges freedom between RMB and foreign currency in different kinds of account,and reduce the negative impact of mismatching.