Flirting with the enemy: online competitor referral and entry-deterrence

Internet retailers often compete fiercely for consumers through expensive marketing efforts like search engine advertising, online coupons and a variety of special deals. Against this background, it is somewhat puzzling that many online retailers have recently begun referring their website visitors to their direct competitors. In this paper, using an analytical model, we examine this counterintuitive practice and posit that an entry deterrence motive can potentially explain this marketplace puzzle. Specifically, we develop a model where two incumbents compete for consumers” business while facing a potential entrant who is deciding whether to enter the market. In addition to setting the price, each incumbent firm could potentially display a referral link to its direct competitor. Our analysis reveals that when confronted with a potential entry, an incumbent may refer consumers to its competitor, intensifying the market competition that could result in shutting off the entrant. Furthermore, we show that when referral efficiency is exogenous, it is possible that in equilibrium only one incumbent refers its customers to competitor (i.e., one-way referral) or both incumbents refer their customers to each other (i.e, two-way referral). When referral efficiency is endogenous, the ex-ante symmetric incumbents may choose asymmetric referral efficiencies ex-post. We extend the model in a number of directions including making the entrant share endogenous and allowing incumbents to be asymmetric. Overall, our results indicate that firms may be motivated by entry deterrence to voluntarily refer consumers to their direct competitors even when they are paid nothing for the referral.