中国东北三省与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易格局时空演变

利用2003年~2017年东北三省与"一带一路"沿线国家进出口贸易数据,采用地理集中度、位序变动指数、综合贸易份额指数、HM指数分析东北三省与沿线国家贸易格局及特征的变化。结果表明:东北三省与"一带一路"沿线国家的贸易往来日益密切,贸易总额大幅增加,尽管东北三省与东北亚地区的贸易份额有所下降,但东北亚地区始终是东北三省的贸易重心。东北三省与沿线国家贸易依赖度不断提高,具有明显的不对称性,表现出显著的单向依赖。从进出口商品结构来看,东北三省向沿线国家出口的资源密集型和劳动密集型商品占比下降,技术密集型商品占比有较大提升,出口商品更加多元化,附加值和科技含量进一步提高,进口商品结构相对稳定,主要为资源密集型和技术密集型商品。

Spatiotemporal evolution of the trade pattern of the three northeastern provinces and the countries along the“Belt and Road”

Based on the data of import and export trade between the three northeastern provinces and the countries along the"Belt and Road"from 2003 to 2017,the geographic concentration,order change index,comprehensive trade share index,and HM index are used to analyze the changes in the trade pattern and characteristics of the three northeastern provinces and the countries along the"Belt and Road".The results show that the trade between the three northeastern provinces and the countries along the"Belt and Road"has become increasingly close,and the total trade volume has increased substantially.Although the trade share of the three northeastern provinces and Northeast Asia has declined,Northeast Asia has always been the focus of trade in the three northeastern provinces.The three northeastern provinces and the countries along the"Belt and Road"continue to increase their trade dependence,which shows obvious asymmetry and significant one-way dependence.From the perspective of the structure of import and export commodities,the proportion of resource-intensive and labor-intensive commodities exported by the three northeastern provinces to the countries along the"Belt and Road"has decreased,the proportion of technology-intensive commodities has greatly increased,the export commodities have become more diversified,the added value and technological content have further improved,the structure of import commodities,mainly resource-intensive and technology-intensive commodities,is relatively stable.