化肥价格变化对粮食价格的影响研究--基于省际动态面板数据模型的系统GMM检验

基于我国粮食价格与化肥价格变动趋势的分析,运用2006年~2017年省际动态面板数据模型和系统GMM方法,实证检验了化肥价格变动对粮食价格的影响。结果表明:化肥价格变动对粮食价格存在显著的正向影响,在考虑化肥价格影响下,农业生产服务、种子等农资价格对粮食价格也存在显著的正向影响,机械化农具和农药价格对粮食价格不显著,"价补分离"政策对粮食价格存在显著负向影响。因此,在化肥减量行动背景下,适度调控化肥价格,避免化肥价格上升挤占粮农利润,大力发展农业生产性服务业和种子业,继续实行"价补分离"政策,提高补贴精准性,减少农民投入成本。

Research on the impact of fertilizer price change on grain price--Based on system GMM test of inter-provincial dynamic panel data model

Based on the analysis of the change trend of China’s grain price and fertilizer price and using the interprovincial dynamic panel data model from 2006 to 2017 and system GMM method, this paper empirically tests the impact of fertilizer price change on grain price. The results show that fertilizer price change has a significant positive impact on grain price. Considering the influence of fertilizer price, the prices of agricultural production services, seeds and other agricultural materials also have a significant positive impact on grain price. The prices of mechanized agricultural tools and pesticides have no significant impact on grain price. The policy of "separation of price from subsidy " has a significant negative impact on grain price. Therefore, under the background of fertilizer reduction action, we should moderately regulate the price of fertilizer to prevent the increasing fertilizer price from reducing the grain farmers’ profits, vigorously develop agricultural production service industries and seed industries, continue to implement the policy of " separation price from subsidy " to improve the accuracy of subsidies and reduce farmers’ input costs.