天津现代物流的发展促进了对外贸易吗?--基于2004年~2017年的经验数据

现代物流对于天津这个典型的港口城市而言具有举足轻重的作用。选取2004年~2017年天津市现代物流与对外贸易时间序列数据,通过单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验等方法对天津市现代物流能否促进对外贸易进行了实证研究。结果表明,货物运输量、交通、仓储及邮政业增加值的增加对天津市对外贸易发展具有促进作用,而货物周转量的增加对天津市对外贸易发展具有阻碍作用。基于研究结论,提出了进一步促进天津市现代物流发展的对策建议。

Has the development of modern logistics in Tianjin promoted foreign trade?--Based on the empiricaldata from 2004 to 2017

Modern logistics exerts its key role in Tianjin, a typical port city. The chronological series data of modern logistics and foreign trade in Tianjin from 2004 to 2017 are selected in this paper to make an empirical study on whether modern logistics in Tianjin can promote foreign trade by means of the Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, Error Correction Model and Granger Causal RelationTest. The results manifest that the increase of freight volume, traffic, warehousing and postal added value promotes the development of foreign trade in Tianjin, while the increase of cargo turnover hinders the growth of foreign trade in Tianjin. Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to further boost the advancement of modern logistics in Tianjin.