技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口的影响研究——基于中美贸易引力模型的实证分析

技术性贸易壁垒与出口之间的关系一直都是学术界关注的重点,但目前学术界对二者之间的具体影响机制尚未形成统一认知。利用2001年~2016年中国电子行业对美国出口额的时间序列数据,通过理论推导与拓展贸易引力模型,研究了美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口的影响。结果表明:实行传统关税壁垒,美国会比中国损失更多的出口利益,从而使得美国放弃关税壁垒而选择技术性贸易壁垒;技术性贸易壁垒对出口呈现正"U"型影响。研究结果还显示:美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口呈倒"U"型影响,这是因为美国技术性贸易壁垒强度会因中国技术创新数量与出口的增加而产生"壁垒强度突变";同时,美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国技术创新数量呈正"U"型影响。根据研究结论,提出了相关政策建议。

Research on the impact of technical barriers to trade on China’s electronics industry export——An empirical analysis based on Sino-US trade gravity model

The relationship between technical trade barriers and exports has always been the focus of academia,but the specific impact mechanism between the two has not yet formed a unified cognition in the academic world.Based on the time series data of China’s electronics industry exports to the United States from 2001 to2016,this paper studies the impact of US technical trade barriers on China’s electronics industry exports through theoretical derivation and expansion of trade gravity model.The results show that the implementation of traditional tariff barriers will cause the United States to lose more export benefits than China,which will cause the United States to abandon tariff barriers and choose technical barriers to trade;technical barriers to trade have a U-shaped impact on exports.The research results also show that US technical trade barriers have an inverted U-shaped effect on China’s electronics industry exports.This is because the strength of US technological trade barriers will cause"abrupt change in barrier strength"due to the increase in the number of Chinese technological innovations and exports.At the same time,US technical barriers to trade have a U-shaped impact on the number of Chinese technological innovations.Based on the conclusions of the study,the paper puts forward some relevant policy countermeasures.