房价上涨如何影响了工业产出

为探究房价上涨对工业生产的作用机制,首先基于理论视角对房价如何影响房地产投资、劳动力成本进而影响工业产出进行了论证,基于2003年~2017年全国时间序列数据,构建VAR模型实证检验了房价上涨对工业产出的影响机理。结果表明:房价上涨对工业产出具有"先促进,后抑制"的作用;房价上涨,一方面通过促进房地产投资增长抑制工业产出,另一方面通过提高工业企业劳动力成本抑制工业产出;短期内工业产出对房价的冲击响应较为灵敏且强烈,但长期来看房地产投资、劳动力成本的影响力会逐渐显现,且房地产投资最终成为了解释工业产出的主导因素。

How rising house prices affect industrial output

In order to explore the mechanism of rising house priceson industrial production,this paper first demonstrates how house prices affect real estate investment,labor costs and then industrial output from a theoretical perspective,and then constructs a VAR model to empirically test the impact mechanism of rising house prices on industrial output based on the national time series data from 2003 to 2017.The results show that:the rise in house prices has the function of"first promoting,then restraining"industrial output;the rise inhouse prices,on the one hand,restrains industrial output by promoting the growth of real estate investment,on the other hand,restrains industrial output by increasing the labor costs of industrial enterprises;in the short term,industrial output has a sensitive and strong response to the impact of house prices,but in the long term,the impact of real estate investment and labor costs will gradually emerge,and real estate investment will eventually become the dominant factor in explaining industrial output.