对未来中国养老照护需求的估计

应对人口老龄化国家战略将中期目标定位在2035年、长期目标定位在2050年,从现在开始到2050年只有30年的时间。应对人口老龄化中长期规划的落脚点应该放到老年人身上,目标是解决好老年人的养老问题,并围绕这一目标制定相应的体制和机制,构建养老服务体系,并制定规划。然而,制定规划的起点应该是了解和掌握现在到未来的养老需求。对未来中国人口和老年人口的规模和结构进行估计,在此基础上对未来需要照护的老年人规摸和结构进行估计,结合需要照护老年人的收入情况,估计了不同收入水平下需要照护老年人未来的变化情况,并对不同收入水平下需要照护老年人的特点和获得照护服务的方式进行了分析。

Estimation of Care Needs of Chinese Elderly in the Future

The national strategy for dealing with the aging of the population sets the medium-term target at 2035 and the long-term target at 2050,with only 30 years between now and 2050.The long-term planning of population aging should be focused on the elderly.The goal is to solve the elderly’s care problems,formulate corresponding systems and mechanisms around this goal,build the elderly service system,and make relevant plans.However,the starting point for planning should be to understand and grasp current and future care needs.This article willl estimate on China’s population and elderly population size and structure in the future.Based on these results,the care needs of the elderly,who are unable to live on themselves,in terms of the number and structure will be estimated from now to year 2050.Combining with the earnings of the elderly who need to be cared,we will project the number and the structure of the elderly needed to be cared under the different income levels in the future,and the characteristics of elderly needed to be cared under different income levels and care services are analyzed.