新冠疫情管控期间西安市人口分布演变及影响因素探测——基于多源时空大数据视角

新冠疫情的"超常规"管控举措影响了城市人口分布,研究其演变规律有助于疫情管控期间城市人口活动规律认知、聚集趋势判断,以及指导精准化管控分区划分和场所差异化管控。基于百度热力和POI数据,采用人口密度指数、ESDA及地理探测器,分析了西安市在2020年2-4月疫情管控期间的人口分布变化及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)西安市人口密度值及人口密度波动幅度由一环向郊外递减,且人口数量及人口流动性逐渐恢复。与非疫情阶段相比,居民的日常活动周期未发生较大变化,但受复工后企业错峰午休以及居民减少外出影响,活动特征在局部表现不同。(2)西安市高、较高密度区逐渐增加,较低、低密度区持续减少,而随着疫情管控放开及复工复产推进,城市人口分布逐渐由"中心—外围"转变为"中心—外围、开发区延伸"的空间结构。同时,西安市人口分布呈现明显的高、低值聚集以及内热外冷圈层式特征,且随着人口活力的恢复,这种特征越来越显著。在此基础上,进一步总结出防控导向型、防控—就业需求导向型、就业—消费需求导向型、购物—休闲需求导向型四种人口活动模式的特征。(3)西安市7类设施对人口分布的影响强度为:住宅小区>餐饮设施>生活服务>医疗机构>购物服务>办公场所>公园广场,且住宅小区、餐饮设施、生活服务、医疗机构的影响强度逐渐减弱,购物服务、办公场所、公园广场的影响强度逐渐增强,指出疫情管控影响下城市配套设施与人口分布的耦合关系变化是影响西安市人口分布由相对分散变为更加聚集的重要原因。

Research on Evolution of Population Distribution and Influencing Factors in Xi' an During the COVID-19 Epidemic Control Period ——Based on a Perspective of Multi -source Spatio-Temporal Big Data

“Extraordinary”control measures of COVID-19 affect a city’s population distribution,studying its patterns helps to understand the law of urban population activities,judge the aggregation tendency,determine precise control zoning and strength in different places during the control period.Based on Baidu Heat Map and POI data,population density index,ESDA and geographic detector are used to analyze the population distribution evolution and influencing factors of Xi’an from February to April in 2020.The results show:(1)The value and fluctuation of population density in Xi’an gradually decrease from the first ring to the suburb,and population size and mobility are gradually recovering.Compared with the non-epidemic period,residents’daily activity has not changed significantly.However,due to the impact of shifted lunch-break time by enterprises and reduction of outdoor activities,human activity characteristics are different at some parts.(2)The higher-and high-density areas of Xi’an gradually increase,and the low-and lower-density areas continue to decrease.With release of control and resumption of work,the spatial structure of urban population gradually changes from“center-periphery”to“center-periphery,extension in industrial zones”.Meanwhile,the spatial distribution presents an obvious characteristic of high-and low-value clusters,as well as a layered structure of inner heat and outer cold,which is becoming more and more obvious along with the restoration of human vitality.On these bases,four activity modes are proposed,which are control-oriented,control and employment-oriented,employment and consumption-oriented,shopping and leisure-oriented.(3)The intensity of driving factors is:residential communities>catering facilities>living service facilities>healthy facilities>commercial facilities>office places>green spaces and squares,the impacts on residential communities,catering facilities,living services and healthy facilities are gradually weakened,and the impacts of commercial facilities,office places and green spaces and squares are gradually increased.And the change of coupling relationship between urban facilities and population distribution during the control period is an important reason that affects the population distribution of Xi’an from scattered to aggregated.