福利性公共支出与长期经济增长——基于分布滞后模型和动态广义矩的实证研究

本文基于中国省际间1997~2011年的面板数据,利用动态广义矩估计和分布滞后模型,将就业、投资与经济增长纳入统一的理论分析框架,经验评估了福利性公共支出对长期经济增长的直接和间接机制。分析发现,福利性公共支出通过促进就业和投资的间接作用机制增进了长期经济增长;就直接作用机制而言,福利性公共支出增加了税收筹资,造成居民和企业形成税后报酬率下降的预期,反而不利于经济增长。政府在扩大福利性公共支出规模的同时,要借助结构性税收调整和支出政策激励企业扩大就业,通过公共品供给机制效应外溢引导产业间投资要素的优化配置。充分发挥福利性公共支出的就业增长和投资增长功能,才能有效促进均衡的长期经济增长。

Welfare Expenditures and Long-term Economic Growth --Empirical Estimation with ADL and GMM Methodology

The article provided a conceptual framework arguing the relationship among employment, investment and eco- nomic growth. Furthermore, it empirically tested the direct and indirect mechanism that the welfare public expenditures and non-welfare public expenditures worked on the long-term economic growth, applying the ADL （Averaged Distributed-lagged Model） and GMM （Generalized Method of Moment） methodology with state panel data from 1997-2011. It found out that wel- fare public expenditures promoted long-term economic growth through urging the employment and investment increase. But di- rectly seen, as welfare public expenditures had to be financed by increasing the tax collection, the decreasing return of after- tax earnings brought down the profit expectation of both residents and enterprises, which finally showed negative to long-term economic growth. When the government enlarged the scale of welfare public expenditures, it was also necessary to encourage the enterprises providing more working chances and lead the optimization of investment resources allocation. Only by exerting the employment and investment increase, just like adjusting the tax structure and optimizing public goods supply, can the welfare expenditures really promote the long-term economic growth.