中美经贸摩擦与日美经贸摩擦比较研究及启示

从美国发动经贸摩擦的动机看,中美经贸摩擦与日美经贸摩擦有相似之处,但有重要差别。日美经贸摩擦基本停留在美国缓解巨额贸易逆差和推动日本进行公平贸易结构性改革的层次,而中美经贸摩擦已经上升到美国对我国经济崛起特别是高科技发展进行战略遏制和意识形态对抗的层次。中美经贸摩擦具有必然性、长期性和日益严峻性,但其对我国的影响也将是阶段性和局部性的。应对中美经贸摩擦,我国需保持战略定力,坚定做好自己的事情,顺势加大改革开放力度,避免陷入"修昔底德陷阱"、"金德尔博格陷阱"和中等收入陷阱。

A Comparative Study of Sino-US Trade Friction and Japan-US Trade Friction and the Enlightenments

Sino-US trade friction and Japan-US trade friction share many elements in common in terms of the US’ motivation. However, differences are significant. Japan-US trade friction was limited to the relief of huge US trade deficit and Japan’s structural reform for the sake of fair trade with the US. In contrast, by trade conflict, the US is trying to contain China in the context of China’s economic rise and rapid high-tech development. It’s more an ideological combat than a trade conflict. Sino-US trade conflict is sure to happen, going to last for a long time and increasingly severe for China, but its adverse influence will be limited. China should maintain its strategic focus, carry out reform and opening-up with greater efforts, and try its best to avoid the Thucydides Trap, the Kindleberger Trap and the Middle-income Trap.