| 广东外贸依存度高低的判断及其趋势预测——基于外贸依存度的国际与国内比较 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨碧云,易行建.广东外贸依存度高低的判断及其趋势预测——基于外贸依存度的国际与国内比较[J].国际经贸探索,2009,25(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨碧云 易行建 |
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| 作者单位： | 杨碧云,YANG Bi-yun(中山大学岭南学院,广东,广州,510275;广东外语外贸大学,国际经济贸易学院,广东,广州,510006);易行建,YI Xing-jian(广东外语外贸大学,国际经济贸易学院,广东,广州,510006)
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| 基金项目： | 广东省自然科学基金，广东省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地创新团队研究项目，广州市社会科学发展规划课题，广东外语外贸大学青年项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对外贸依存度进行区域比较并对影响外贸依存度的因素进行对比分析,从产业结构调整与贸易结构调整的角度对广东省目前外贸依存度的高低进行判断并对其长期趋势进行预测.结论表明:广东省的外贸依存度偏高,短期内将呈现波动,且在长期内将呈现下降趋势,其下降的幅度、持续的时间以及最终趋于阶段性稳定的外贸依存度水平高低将取决于产业结构、贸易结构以及人民币汇率波动等具体因素的影响.据此提出了相应的政策建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 外贸依存度 贸易结构调整 产业结构调整 外贸政策 |
The Judgment and Long-term Trend Forecast of Foreign Trade Dependence Ratio in Guangdong Province: Based on International and Domestic Comparison |
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| YANG Bi-yun,YI Xing-jian.The Judgment and Long-term Trend Forecast of Foreign Trade Dependence Ratio in Guangdong Province: Based on International and Domestic Comparison[J].International Economics and Trade Research,2009,25(1). |
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| Authors: | YANG Bi-yun YI Xing-jian |
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| Institution: | 1.Guangdong University of Foreign Studies;Guangzhou 510420;2.Sun Yat-sen University;Guangzhou 510275;China |
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| Abstract: | This paper compares the difference of RFTD among different countries and different provinces, then judges the level of the RFTD in Guangdong province and forecasts its long-term trend of the RFTD according to the view of industrial structure and trading structure. The results reveal that the nominal RFTD in Guangdong is high and will still rise in the following years, but the rising speed will slow down and in the long term will decrease after the transition. Finally, it proposes suggestions on foreign trad... |
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| Keywords: | RFTD adjustment of trade structure adjustment of industrial structure foreign trade policy |
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