短期经济冲击对中国农产品贸易的影响

全球经济危机、中国农产品竞争力状况等因素对我国农产品贸易平衡造成影响。文章基于2005～2008年间月度数据,通过协整检验分析了各相关因素对农产品进出口的影响程度。结果表明,我国劳动力成本上升、国外需求下降、国内需求上升、人民币升值是导致中国农产品贸易逆差上升的重要原因。解决这一问题要增加人力资本和农业基础设施投入,转变经济增长方式,优化进出口结构,适度调整人民币币值,积极开拓国际市场。

The Influence of Short-term Economic Shocks on China's Agricultural Product Trade

A number of factors,such as the global economic crisis and the lack of competitiveness of China's agricultural products,affect the trade balance of China's agricultural products. This paper uses the monthly data of the years 2005-2008 to analyze several factors and their influence on China's agricultural export and import trade through cointegration analysis. The results show that the rising labor costs and domestic demand of China,the overseas recession in demand and the appreciation of RMB are the main re...