人民币升值对我国宏观经济影响的CGE分析

通过利用动态CGE模型-MCHUGE模型仿真研究人民币升值对我国宏观经济的影响,可以看出人民币升值对中国经济造成了一定的冲击,出现了一定程度经济紊乱和就业恶化。7年内,中国的实际GDP保持持续降低,但降低幅度呈现逐渐减弱的态势。实际消费、政府支出、净出口、实际工资、总的就业水平均有所下降,特别是居民实际消费和政府支出的下降,极大地带动了GDP的下降;此外,中国的贸易条件得到一定程度的改善,居民消费指数下降。

A Dynamic CGE Analysis of the Impact of RMB Appreciation on China's Macro-economy

This paper conducts a simulation study by the use of CGE model.The results showthat the RMB apprecia tion has brought a certain impact on China's economy, and to some extent has led to the deterioration of economic disorder and employment.During the past seven years, China's real GDP has sustained a decline, but the degree of decline has been gradually weakened.Real consumption, government spending, net export, real salary, and the overall level of employment all have declined to some extent, and in particu...