服务贸易协定承诺的覆盖率对制造业增加值出口的影响

文章借助WTO与世界银行联合建立的Integrated Trade Intelligence Portal数据库构建服务贸易协定承诺的覆盖率指标,选取Trade in value-added数据库2005年至2015年27个国家(地区)制造业增加值出口的国内增加值和国外增加值数据,通过实证分析,得出结论:(1)服务贸易协定生效在短时间内对制造业国内增加值和国外增加值出口存在显著的促进效应,且随着生效年限增加,促进效应也在加强;(2)服务贸易协定承诺的覆盖率越高,对制造业增加值出口的促进作用越强。根据国家收入水平对服务贸易协定进行分类的异质性分析结果显示:(1)发达国家(地区)与其他国家(地区)签订服务贸易协定对其制造业增加值出口的提升没有显著正向影响,甚至表现出负面影响;(2)发展中国家(地区)之间签订的服务贸易协定能够在生效2年后显著促进发展中国家(地区)制造业国外增加值出口。

The Influence of Coverage Level of the Commitments in Service Trade Agreements on Manufacturing Value-added Export

Based on Integrated Trade Intelligence Portal database which was jointly developed by WTO and the World Bank,this paper constructs a coverage index of the commitments in service trade agreements.The paper makes an empirical analysis by selecting domestic and foreign value-added data of manufacturing value-added export of 27 countries(regions)in Trade in Value-added database from 2005 to 2015.The results show that:(1)the effectiveness of service trade agreements has a significant promotion effect on domestic and foreign value-added exports of manufacturing industry in a short period of time,and the promotion effect is strengthened with the increase of effective years;(2)the higher the coverage level of the commitments in service trade agreements,the stronger the promotion effect of manufacturing value-added export.The heterogeneity analysis of the classification of service trade agreements according to national income level shows that:(1)the signing of service trade agreements between the developed countries(regions)and other countries(regions)has no significant positive effect on the increase of their manufacturing value-added export,or even shows a negative impact;(2)service trade agreements signed between the developing countries(regions)can significantly promote foreign value-added export of manufacturing industry in the developing countries(regions)after two years of entry into force.