我国价格贸易条件的影响因素分析——基于内外部均衡的视角

文章运用1981～2006年的时间序列数据,对我国货物及工业制成品价格贸易条件恶化的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:人民币汇率的低估、实际资本存量的迅速增加和国内生产对国际市场的依赖程度加深是我国贸易条件恶化的Granger原因。文章据此认为,宏观经济内部失衡,投资率过高消费率偏低,生产能力相对过剩,迫使企业低价出口,是我国价格贸易条件恶化的主要原因。

Analysis of the Factors Affecting China's Price Terms of Trade from the Perspective of Internal and External Balance

The paper, using the time- series data from 1981 to 2006, makes an empirical analysis of the factors affec ting the deterioration of China's price terms of goods and industrial products trade. The result shows that the underestimation of RMB exchange rate, the rapid increase in actual capital stock and the deepening of domestic produ ction's dependence on the international market are the Granger reasons why China's terms of trade are worsening. It holds that the internal imbalance of macro economy, high inv...