| 我国外汇储备与CPI波动动态传导机制研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈碧琼,何燕.我国外汇储备与CPI波动动态传导机制研究[J].国际经贸探索,2009(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈碧琼 何燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆大学贸易与行政学院;重庆大学经济与工商管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 2007年度国家社会科学基金(07CJL010) |
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| 摘 要： | 文章构建IS-LM-BP模型并借助1994年1月～2008年6月(174个样本)月度时间序列数据,对我国物价波动及其传导机制进行实证研究。结果发现:外汇储备、进出口贸易和物价之间存在长期协整关系;短期和长期内货币供应量和外汇储备对物价波动均产生正向冲击;进出口贸易是物价波动的格兰杰原因,但外汇储备不是物价波动的格兰杰原因;脉冲响应证实进出口贸易和货币供应量短期内减缓物价波动,但是长期内对物价波动冲击效应显著,加剧物价波动。由此可见,在开放经济发展过程中,不能忽视物价波动的外部传导机制,内外经济问题都需要高度关注。
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| 关 键 词： | 非外汇储备 进出口贸易 货币供应量 CPI波动 |
Study of the Dynamic Transmission Mechanism for China's Foreign Exchange Reserves and CPI Fluctuations |
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| CHEN Bi-qiong,HE Yan.Study of the Dynamic Transmission Mechanism for China's Foreign Exchange Reserves and CPI Fluctuations[J].International Economics and Trade Research,2009(5). |
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| Authors: | CHEN Bi-qiong HE Yan |
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| Institution: | Chongqing University;Chongqing 400044;China |
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| Abstract: | This paper constructs an IS-LM-BP model to study China's price fluctuations and its dynamic transmission mechanism by using the time-series data from February 1994 to June 2008 (174 samples). It finds that there exists a long-term co-integration relationship between foreign exchange reserves, import-export trade and price fluctuations; both monetary supply and foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on price fluctuations in the short and long term; import export trade is the Granger cause of price ... |
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| Keywords: | foreign exchange reserve import export trade monetary supply CPI fluctuation |
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