中日贸易与人民币汇率:实证分析

中日贸易与人民币汇率问题，其汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的。在两变量模型中，1998～2003年月度数据计量表明，中日贸易与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且，依据中日两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。在多变量模型中计量证实，日本对华贸易收支取决于日本总产出、日本进口关税、人民币对日元实际汇率，以及中国总产出等宏观经济变量，仅仅人民币对日元实际升值，只会对日本对华贸易收支产生不利的影响。政策建议是，中日两国应该采取贸易合作政策，这样中日双边贸易收支都将会得到改善。

An Empiric Study of the Sino-Japan Trade and the Exchange Rates of RMB

The paper discusses the Sino-Japan trade and the exchange rates of RMB and it doubts about the influence of exchange rates in Sino-Japan trade. The bi-variable model shows that the monthly data collected from 1998 to 2003 does not support the long-run relation between Sino-Japan trade and the exchange rates of RMB. While the multi-variable model indicates that Japan-Sino trade depends on Japan's GDP, its import tariff, Yen's exchange rates to RMB and the macro-economic variables such as China's GDP. The paper argues that RMB's appreciation against Yen will bring negative effect to Japan in its trade with China, and that it is wise for the both countries to adopt cooperative trade policies.