中国地区间出口差异变动的实证分析

利用1996-2005年期间的统计数据,借鉴并融合不同科学的经典研究方法对中国31个省市之间的出口差异进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:在1996-2005年期间,中国31个省市之间的出口绝对差异在不断地扩大,出口相对差异在不断地下降;出口差异扩大及其导致的风险问题日益突出,差异的扩大主要是由外部差异导致的,内部差异没有发生变化;东部地区内部的差异最大且差异越来越大;地区间出口的发展水平差距日趋加剧。因此,在地区间经济发展日益不平衡的宏观背景下,中国政府应该实施必要的政策措施缩小地区间出口差异,从而促进区域经济的协调发展。

Empirical Analysis on the Regional Export Difference in China

This paper analyzes the export difference among Chinas 31 provinces and metropolitans from 1996 to 2005. The paper finds that the absolute difference among China’s provinces increase, but the relative difference decrease. For the three regions, the East has the greatest inner difference and the difference has the tendency to enlarge; the regional export difference keeps increasing. In a word, the risk of the export difference becomes very high. So China should carry out some countermeasures to reduce the export difference in order to reduce the regional economic difference.