我国主要进口商品的Armington替代弹性估计

本文在对Armington替代弹性进行理论综述的基础上,运用Panel Data回归模型,对我国具有代表性的八种进口商品的Armington替代弹性进行了估计。回归结果表明:八种进口商品的整体替代弹性估计值较低,仅为0.568。其中,原煤的替代弹性估计值最高,为11.502;谷物和电视机的替代弹性估计值较低,分别为1.521和0.788。Armington替代弹性的大小反映的是进口商品与本国商品之间的替代程度,因此,我国原煤的进口敏感性较强,而电视机进口对国内电视机产业的冲击不大。

Armington Substitution Elasticity of Major Imported Commodities of China: Theory and Estimation

This paper reviews the theory of Armington subsitution elasticity, and then estimates the Armington subsitution elasticity of eight imported commodities of China using panel data regres- sion models. The estimation results indicate that the overall substitution elasticity of all the eight im- ported commodities is as low as 0.568. That of coal is 11.502 as the highest. The Armington substi- tution elasticity of corn and TV set are as low as 1.521 and 0.788 respectively. Since the value of Armington subsitution elasticity reflects the degree of substitution between imported and the domestic commodities, the paper concludes that the import of coal is relatively more sensitive as the case of China, and the domestic TV industry has not been struck by TV set import.