我国贸易分散的实证研究:1980-2005年

在当前我国对外贸易纠纷与摩擦越来越多的情况下,贸易分散可以提供有效的缓解机制,并深刻影响国家的贸易利益和经济安全。本文对1980至2005年我国对外贸易的地区分散程度进行了综合研究。在总量分析的基础上,用HH指数分别计算和分析了进、出口的分散程度,并检验了其与各地区进、出口的格兰杰因果性关系。研究结果显示,我国贸易的分散程度受到国内政策与国际贸易秩序的严重影响,贸易总量也会对其产生限制。消除这几个因素后,贸易结构逐渐趋于分散并保持平稳。另外,进口与出口能够互相推动,贸易分散具有自我加强机制。

An Empirical Research on Trade Scatter of China: 1980-2005

Trade scatter is an effective way of easing up trade conflict and raising the safety of economy,especially for China at present.This paper measures China's degree of trade scatter for the period from 1980 to 2005,in which HH index is used to calculate the degree.This paper concludes that all the indexes are significantly affected by the domestic trade policies and international trade system,as well as the total trade quantities.The trade would be scattered naturally without those two factors.In addition,import and export are both pushed by each other,which deepens the trade scatter,but it differs in different region.