中国进口贸易技术溢出效应的实证分析

进口贸易是技术的一种主要溢出渠道。本文运用Lichtenberg＆Potterie（1996）方法构建国外R＆D资本存量，并将人力资本要素考虑在内建立进口贸易技术溢出的计量模型．选取中国和G-7国家的时间序列数据，分析中国国内R＆D资本存量和通过进口贸易获得的国外R＆D技术溢出对中国全要素生产率的影响。结果表明国内外R＆D资本存量都能显著地提升中国的全要素生产率。进一步的误差修正模型的分析结果表明，在短期内进口贸易的技术溢出对促进中国的技术进步存在一定的时滞效应。在此实证研究基础之上，本文提出了相应的政策建议。

Empirical Analysis of Technology Spillover Effect of Import Trade in China

Import trade is a kind of channel of international technology spillover. This paper develops an empirical model of technology spillover of import trade which is based on Lichtenberg & Potterie's method and incorporates in human capital. It selects a series data of China and Group-seven countries, analyzes the affect of domestic R&D capital and foreign R&D spillovers gained through import trade to our country's total factor productivity(TFP). Cointegration analysis results show that domestic and foreign R&D capital can remarkably promote our country's TFP. Further ECM analysis results show that there exists time lag effect of technology spillovers of import trade in the short run. Based on the empirical analysis, This paper puts forward some suggestions.