外商直接投资对中国商品进出口影响的实证分析

本文采用贸易引力模型,结合混合回归分析与横截面分析两种方法,对1992年至2004年外商对华直接投资对中国商品进出口、出口、进口的影响进行了实证分析。混合回归结果表明,外商对华直接投资对中国商品进出口、出口、进口的增长均存在长期且显著的促进作用,而且这种促进作用存在时滞。横截面分析结果表明,每年外商对华直接投资对于中国商品进出口、出口、进口的促进作用随着时间的推移是波动的,但从总趋势来看,这种促进作用在不断增强。

Empirical Analysis of FDI's Impact on China's Commodity Imports and Exports

This paper analyzes the impact of China's inward foreign direct investment(FDI)on China's commodity imports and exports from 1992 to 2004. It employs both pooled regression analysis method and the cross-section analysis method to estimate an augmented trade gravity equation. The pooled regression analysis shows that there is a long-term prominent positive effect with time lag from China's inward FDI to China's commodity imports and exports. The cross-sectional analysis shows that each year the positive effect from China's inward FDI to China's commodity imports and exports waved in time history, but the positive effect is continuously enhanced in the long term.