我国油料进口的Armington弹性估计与进口福利波动分析

近年来,油料成为了我国第一大类的进口农产品,为了衡量油料进口对国内生产和整体福利的影响,本文以大豆和油菜籽为例,选取1991-2005年的时间序列数据,测算了其Armington替代弹性和进口福利波动值。从短期来看,大豆和油菜籽进口对国内生产的冲击不大,进口福利的减少主要是由进口价格上涨引起的;而长期替代弹性则较大,如果不重视发展国内生产,提高国内产品的国际竞争力,掌握进口定价权,进口就会对国内生产造成较大冲击,降低整体福利水平。

China's Oilseeds Import: Estimation of Armington Elasticity and Welfare Fluctuations

Recently, oilseeds have become the first main importing agricultural products. In order to judge the consequences for domestic production and welfare, this paper chooses the time series data of soybeans and rapeseeds in 1991-2005 to calculate the Armington substitution elasticity and the import welfare fluctuation value. In the short term, import has little shock on domestic production, and the decline of import welfare is mainly caused by the rise in import prices. Long-term elasticity is so huge that import will strike domestic production and reduce the welfare if we don’t attach importance to developing production, improving international competition and obtaining the pricing right.