人民币对美元实际汇率与中美贸易净出口关系的实证研究

中美双方的统计结果均表明,中美双边的贸易顺差是巨大的。按照中方提供的数据,格兰杰因果检验结果是人民币对美元实际汇率的变化对中美贸易净出口的变化没有统计上的影响;而按照美方提供的数据,人民币对美元实际汇率的变化对中美贸易净出口的变化有统计上的影响。然而,由于美方的数据夸大了中美之间实际上的净出口,因此美国的结论是不成立的。要解决中美之间的贸易冲突,在人民币汇率上做文章是行不通的,只有找出引起中美贸易净出口扩大的真正原因,才能有效解决中美巨额贸易顺差的问题。

Empirical Study on the Relations between the Real Exchange Rate of RMB-dollar and Sino-USA Net Export

Both China's and America's statistics show that the favorable balance between China and America is very huge.According to the data supplied by China,the result of Granger causality test is that the variance of the real exchange rate of RMB-dollar has no statistical effect on the variance of Sino-USA net export.According to the data supplied by America,however,the result is on the contrary.Because the data supplied by America exaggerates the real net export between China and America,the conclusion drawn by America is questionable.It is not a good way to change exchange rate of RMB-dollar to resolve trade conflict between China and America.Only to search for the real factor increasing the net export can we solve the problem of the huge favorable balance between China and America effectively.