全球经济危机对我国出口贸易的影响

首先定性地分析了发达国家的经济发展和我国出口贸易十多年的走势,探究不同时期两者之间的变化是否趋同;然后选取美国、欧元区的国内GDP和商品相对价格指标,建立这两个因素对我国的出口贸易的影响程度的计量方程;随后,建立两个不同的VAR模型,第一个模型考察我国出口贸易和美、欧实体经济间的长期协整关系,运用脉冲响应函数分析外部冲击的滞后效应;针对当前金融危机造成货币紧缩,各国均采取一系列的刺激经济恢复的手段,在第二个VAR模型中,选取了较为代表性的外部因素——欧美的信贷政策和居民消费,以及作为国际资本流动因素的我国FDI,并运用脉冲响应函数考察这些政策因素对我国出口贸易产生的长期影响。最后根据实证结论提出政策建议。

Impact of Global Economic Crisis on China Export Trade

Qualitative analysis of developed countries’ economic development and the growth trend of China export in more than ten years are firstly conducted to explore the existence of convergence between changes of each in different time periods. Then a regression model is utilized, selecting GDP and domestic goods relative price indicators of the U.S. and Euro zone countries as guidelines, to inspect the impact of these two factors on China export trade. Subsequently, two different VAR models are established. The first model investigates the long-term cointegration relationship between China export trade and the real economies of the United States and Europe, and the lag effects of external shocks using the impulse response function. The second model, conducted under the background that the current financial crisis caused monetary tightening and many countries have adopted a series of means to stimulate economic recovery, selects representatives of external factors, credit policies, residents consumption of the United States and Europe, and China FDI as the capital flow factor, to examine the long-term impact of these domestic and foreign factors on China export trade. Finally, policy recommendations are put forward based on empirical evidence.