中国价格贸易条件变动趋势与出口商品结构——基于1981-2007年的时序数据的研究

利用回归方程对1981-2007年中国贸易条件变动趋势进行测算,研究发现:中国贸易条件以每年4.6%的速度下降,其中工业制成品贸易条件下降是主要动因。在此基础上,利用协整模型对价格贸易条件与工业制成品出口比例的相关关系进行实证检验:长期来看,价格贸易条件与工业制成品出口比例之间存在着稳定的协整关系,并且工业制成品出口比例上升是造成中国价格贸易条件恶化的格兰杰原因。

The Changing Trend of China Price Terms of Trade and Export Structure

This paper uses regress equations to calculate the changing of terms of trade and finds that terms of trade declines at the rate of 4.6% each year,and the declining of terms of trade of manufactured goods are the main cause.On this basis,the paper uses cointegration model to analyze the correlation between price terms of trade and manufactured goods export ratio: in the long run,the stable cointegration relations exist between manufactured goods exports ratio and price terms of trade.Furthermore,the increas...